Gateway to the commodities-jungle

lead buy only above 131.20, short below 128.30

2007-08-08T08:31:11+02:00

Lead has shown some unexpected movement in the recent days. Bullish movement expected in zinc only if breaks intra day high of 131.20 for target 133-134 with sl placed at 129.50.

if it breaks the low of 128.30, then sell it with sl above intra -day high for target 126-125.

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CHANA WEEKLY HIGHLIGHT

2007-06-23T08:27:10+02:00

CHANA HIGHLIGHT

The production of chana for the current year was harvested around 60 lakh metric tonne, while the demand is quiet against the output.
Chana showed smart recovery in the current week backed by good demand in the spot coupled with firm tone on National Commodity and Derivative Exchange.

Weekly highlight:

A range-bound trade with firm market sentiment in desi chana witnessed at the benchmark trading centers of Delhi and Indore.
Demand from dal millers has improved in current week and likely to remain in the near term.
Supply from Madhya Pradesh is not significant due to lack parity at the other centers.

Desi chana at the Lawrence road was traded at Rs. 2,215 on Monday, while it was priced at Rs. 2,235-2,240 per quintal on Saturday.
Demand has improved significantly in the current week from the millers attributed to rise in prices.
Also, there is news of Andhra Government issued a tender to buy 1.5 lakh MT of chana, which has fueled prices in states.
The forward deals for Australia chana for October/November shipment fluctuating in the range of Rs. 2,551 to Rs. 2,575 per quintal.

Traders View

Mr. Arun (Sumitra Trading Co) from Delhi said, “chana prices likely to remain firm in the coming days, however a pull back of around Rs.50-75 also can’t be ruled out in between these days. He is expecting prices to touch level of Rs.2,500 in the spot in the month of July-August.”

Technical View:

Trend is up, but the nature of movement is sideways. One can enter in August chana above 2,400 for target 2,419 and 2,464 with strict stop 2,375.

Support: 2368 - 2358 - 2343
Resistant 2393 - Resistant 2393 - 2408 - 2418

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Pepper Research Report

2007-06-20T06:33:09+02:00

INTRODUCTION Indigenous to India, pepper, rightly called the King of Spices, is one of the oldest and best-known spices in the world. India has always reigned supreme in the production and export of this most exotic and sought-after spice.

Indian pepper had a profound influence on the European economy of the middle Ages. Many western countries owed their prosperity to this spice, which fetched them a very high price. Easily the finest in quality anywhere, Indian pepper is grown in the monsoon forests along the Malabar Coast in South India. Here, a combination of natural advantages and organic techniques produces bigger, better shaped, more aromatic and flavorful berries.

Two of the most celebrated trade varieties of Indian black pepper are 'Malabar Garbled' and 'Tellichery Extra Bold'. India also offers green pepper in several processed forms - frozen, dehydrated, freeze-dried and packed in brine. Pepper is a perennial climber requiring the support of live or dead standards.
FUTURE TREND The global pepper production fall around 20-25 per cent. The rising demand for the king of spices likely to fuel up the market sentiment. We are expecting price to touch level of Rs. 16,500-17,500 per quintal in the month of August-September. The prices likely to surge on demand gap supply. Global supply of pepper projected around 2.65 lakh tones against 2.9 MT last year.Demand has grown significantly in the recent year, the demand is growing at the rate of 3.46 per annum: IPC.
FALLING PRICES The depreciation of dollar against rupee has adversely affected the export parity, which has led halted the prices to boom despite of strong demand. Also, profit booking from the market players has led sharp fall in prices after sharp rally on futures as well as on the spot market. Overseas imported has adopted wait and watch policy owing to speculative activity in the market.Best buy: As per our study, one can enter in NCDEX August below 13,500 with SL 13,000 targeting for 16,500-17,500. BULLISH REASON: India –·        Productions fall to 40,000 MT this year against 45,000-50,000 last year.·        Incessant heavy rains last year coupled with diseases are said to have resulted in a sharp fall in the pepper production in the country. ·        Rains during pollination have affected berry formation in the vines.·        Quick-wilt disease has taken its toll, as the affected vines have not been removed to ensure that the disease does not spread to other areas.·        Replanting the old vines with improved variety has not been taking place at all. There are vines, which are over 50 years old.·        Pepper output has been on a declining trend since 1998-99 except in 2002-03 when the production, according to official estimates, stood at 70,600 tonnes. Thereafter, it has been swinging between 50,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes.·        Also, dropping yield per hectare, which used to be between 239 kg and 370 kg /ha against Vietnam's 2,500 - 3,000 kg/ha.    Vietnam - ·        Vietnam, world largest producer of pepper, shares around 24 per cent of world production.·        Pepper production estimated around 90-95 thousand MT agaisnt normal 1.2 lakh MT. ·        Crop 07 (85% harvested) has dropped by at least 20% to reach +/= 90,000 Mt (old trees, low yield due to lack of fertilizer , insect damage on roots), and for the following years, it should stand below 100,000 mt.·        Low carry over from 2006.·        Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year > 1,400$ /mt) or spices.·        Delays and defaults occurring also·        Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year, 1,400$ /mt).·        Delays and defaults occurring also.
Malaysia ·        Pepper production in Malaysia during 2006-07 is expected around 20,000-22,000 MT.·        Lower production and increased local consumption, hence Malaysia had not much to offer.
            Indonesia · Pepper output pegged around 18-20,000 MT.· Only 10-15,000 is exportable quantity.·        Erratic rainfall has significantly hampered the production.
Brazil

Brazil emerged as a second largest pepper producing country.

· The production estimated around 50,000-60,000 MT.

25,000-30,000 MT are likely to dispatch from Brazil.
Brazilian farmer may hold their pepper for higher prices Farmers are also in strong position, as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities coffee.

Pepper Season Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Vietanam India Malaysia Brazil Indonesia Srilanka Pepper quality produce in major countriesIndonesia – GL 500, Asta GradeBrazil - B Asta, B1India – Malabar (MG1) World Pepper production from 1970- 2007 Source: http://www.sarawakpepper.gov.my The graph clearly shows that, India was the leading pepper producer around 20003, later on Vietnam notched the seat from India to become the number one producer due to increased area and better sowing techniques. The graph also indicates, the pepper production has significantly declined in the past year fueling the prices in the international market. Pepper production was on the peak during 2003-2004 as shown in graph. But, later on, bad weather condition, disease, and lack of proper guidance the farmer led to drastic fall in global output.
PEPPER & PEPPER PRODUCTS The products developed from pepper broadly fall into four groups: black pepper, white pepper, green pepper and oil and oleoresin of pepper. Black pepper is the whole dried fruit of the plant, while white pepper is the dried seed after removing the pericarp of the berries. White pepper is neither too hot nor too cold, and is supposed to be the best of all peppers. Black as well as white pepper, are widely used as food ingredients, and as flavouring agents for a variety of processed foods. Because of their curative value, the medical and pharmaceutical industries also use them extensively. Pepper oil, oleoresin and green pepper have specialist applications as food intermediates.

Black Pepper: Black pepper is obtained by drying the ripe green berries. It is widely used by the food industry including processed meat and confectionery products. Black pepper is mostly used in three forms: powder, oil and oleoresin. Most countries import whole pepper berries and convert them into powder. Since the pepper oil and oleoresin and all the flavour characteristics of the original spice are retained quality-conscious food processors prefer whole black pepper. USA is the main market for black pepper.
White Pepper: White pepper is prepared from the optimally mature peppercorns. The berries are kept under running water for 7 to 9 days to soften their pericarp. After removing the pericarp by scrubbing, the white peppercorns are washed and dried. White pepper is mainly used in the preparation of light-coloured dishes, sauces and soups. West Europe constitutes the major market for white pepper.
Ground Pepper: Dried pepper berries today are commercially ground using various types of mills, depending on the users’ specifications (e.g. particle size, volatile-oil content, etc). Critical factors like grinding temperature, hygiene and packaging affect the quality of ground pepper. There are a number of spice grinders in producing countries who grind pepper and other spices, using mills from basic machines to sophisticated cryogenic systems.
Green Pepper: Green pepper is made from the fully developed but immature berries. They are preserved in brine, vinegar or citric acid and may be dried or kept in the preservative. Europeans are fascinated by the natural green colour and fresh flavour of green pepper.
Canned Green Pepper: The separated green pepper berries are washed and filled in cans containing a diluted solution of sodium chloride with or without added acidity. The filled cans are then sealed and sterilized by the autoclave process, and cooled under running water. Europe, USA and Australia use canned green pepper for flavoring food and garnishing meat dishes.
Green Pepper in Brine: Green pepper in brine is made from young, green pepper berries, which are carefully detached from the stalks and preserved in a specially formulated solution of vinegar and brine, to retain the natural color and texture of the berries.
Dehydrated Green Pepper: Dehydrated green pepper has the green color and the flavors of fresh pepper. On dehydration, the berries turn full and soft, but do not have the texture of green pepper in brine. Freeze-drying ensures better dehydration. Freezing the berries in a brass freezer makes frozen green pepper. Europe is the major importer of frozen green pepper.

Pepper Oil: Pepper essential oil or volatile oil is a natural blend of mainly terpenes and their derivatives that form a clear yellowish green to bluish green color. It is responsible for the characteristic aroma of pepper. Today, this essential oil is still commercially extracted from the pepper berries mainly by the process of steam distillation.

Pepper Oleoresin: Pepper oleoresin is a concentrated, resinous extract obtained by conventional solvent extraction or supercritical fluid extraction. As the name implies, pepper oleoresin consists of a blend of the essential oil, resinous matter of the spice and related compounds like the pungent alkaloid piperine. Pepper oleoresin has a relatively full flavour profile characteristic of pepper as compared to pepper oil. In Malaysia, there is no commercially run oleoresin extraction.
Green Pepper Sauce: Green peppercorns are first ground to a puree and then blended with vinegar, salt, sugar or other ingredients. Distinctly piquant with a natural fresh flavour, green pepper sauce is also used as a dip for chips and fries.

COMMON USES OF PEPPER

As a Food Condiment: The use of pepper as a seasoning/condiment, on its own or in spice blends, is on the increase with the growing popularity of snacks, ethnic foods, ready-to-cook meals as well as healthy low-sugar-and-salt foods especially in the developed countries. Black pepper tastes strongest when freshly ground although pre-ground pepper is often used in seasonings for convenience. White pepper is less aromatic than black pepper but has special applications, as in white sauces where black pepper would give them an undesirable speckled appearance.
As a Preservative: The value of pepper as a natural preservative for meat and other perishable foods has been known for centuries. Studies have shown that this is due to the anti-oxidant and anti-microbial properties present in pepper.

Known Medicinal Uses: Pepper is an important ingredient in Ayurvedic, Chinese and Unami and other traditional medicines. The three main therapeutic uses of pepper are as a stomachic, digestive and tonic.

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PEPPER: IPC REPORT

2007-06-11T06:19:41+02:00

According to International Pepper Community (IPC) black pepper prices continued to decline during the week, with exception of India. At Kochi, average price of black pepper increased marginally by 1 per cent, but trading activity remained calm as last week. In Sarawak, local prices eased from MR. 10,170 a tonne at the end of last week to MR. 10,050 at the week's close. FOB price also fell marginally.

In Lampung, average local prices were reported stable at around IDR 29,000, but in Dollar terms, the price declined by 1 per cent due to strengthening of

dollar against IDR.

At Daklak, Vietnam, the price for raw materials eased to VND 49,500 a kg from VND 52,000 at last week's close. In Sri Lanka, average price prevailed at producing areas was SLRs. 336.33 a kg or $2,925 a tonne.

WHITE PEPPER

In Bangka local prices of Muntok white declined IDR 1,000 a kg to

IDR 37,500 this week. In Sarawak, local prices eased marginally by 1 per cent compared with last week, while FOB prices were reported stable.

During April 2007, India exported around 1,600 tonnes of pepper worth Rs 20.6 crore as against 1,500 tonnes worth Rs 13 crore in April 2006. During January-April 2007, total export from India was 9,376 tonnes valued at Rs 111.8 crore. Compared with 2006, export during this period increased by 52 per cent in volume and 118 per cent in value.

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TECH CALL IN REFINE OIL

2007-06-09T09:38:47+02:00

BUY MCX JULY REFINE OIL IN THE RANGE 490-491 SL 487.60 T1 493 T2 498

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TARGET ACHIEVED IN JEERA CALL GIVEN ON JUNE 08

2007-06-09T09:31:51+02:00

ALL TARGET ACHIEVED IN JEERA CALL GIVEN ON JUNE 08.
THE CALL WAS- TECHNICALS: BUY NCDEX JEERA JUNE AT CMP SL 12840 T1 13252 T2 13401
NOW BUY JULY JEERA AT CMP 13690 SL 13350 T1 13900-14050-14200
TRADE WISELY
THE AUTHOR OF THE BLOG DONOT RESPOSIBLE FOR ANY LOSS

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Cuminseed - Prices may rise sharply

2007-06-08T10:22:32+02:00

Today we received some reports from sources in Syria and Turkey informing that cumin harvest is shorter than expected in Turkey and strongly damaged in Syria pushing the prices up.
Apparently there´s no stock left in Syria and the new crop may be of dark color and inferior quality.
Below a bief report from a cumin seed exporter

Cumin seed on the move upwards in the last days.
The crop in Syria has been seriously damaged due to heavy rains when the plant was flowering. This has given as a result a change in colour and a large part of the crop is very dark to even black coloured. 1st grade merchandise will become scarce from Syria this season.
The harvest in Turkey will start in July and all prospects are good untill now although the crop from Turkey will only be around 7 to 8000 M/t with a small current carryover of 1000 M/t.
Currently the prices are fluctuating around the US$ 2.850 FOB Izmir level.
It seems that Syria will work with 2 different price-levels this season and might offer damaged merchandise at cheaper price levels. So buyers should be carefull with Syrian merchandise.

Prices will most likely only become steady when the Turkish crop has been fully harvested by the end of July.
When the total crop Syrian, Iranian and Turkish will be on the market by end of July we are talking about nearly 50.000 M/t of cumin seeds and prices should ease somehow as the increase of the last days just seems to strong.
We advise buyers to take an waiting position, demand will only increase the price-levels more.........

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Pepper report from Vietnam

2007-06-08T10:17:27+02:00

Pepper is very interesting markets in this year, prices are up, up so much and make many people are very nervous to trade this item. Nobody think it is high like that!!! Increadible prices, from usd 2,400 per mt to USD 2,700 per mt and until sometimes up to usd 3,950 fob for 500 gr/l. so many buyers/traders are reluctant to buy pepper, many processing factories in EU decided not to buy at high prices and wait. From Feb 2007 they wait prices better in Mar but prices was up, up and they have waited until now is FH June 2007. some factories they use last berries to process and hope prices comeing down.

The Giant traders are have not better positions. They sold alots forward contracts at cheap and hope they can cover in Mar/April and they told many buyers in EU not to buy and wait, prices would be sure down in Mar/April however until end May/FH June prices are not really better!!! And they sold already, many contracts need to be delivered. Some traders in Origin they don’t deliver, the Big traders are negotiating with buyers to delay 2 or 3 months to help them not to get BIG LOSS, many short positions we can see from very BIG traders in HOLAND in Vietnam. Some buyers agreed but some asked them to ship on time since they need very much pepper to process!

And we heard that some BRAZIL sold forward positions at very cheap levels!!!

What they(Big traders) have to do now??? They pread news to all buyers in EU/American not to buy to press prices down! therefore there is not so many demands from EU/America. Buyers wait, another hand traders continue to buy to cover their positions which some processing buyers not to agree to ship pepper late.

So one question! How many tons VN have? If VN have more quantity, prices shud be down but as you see many times prices are easy alittle bit, and then it goes up shuddenly!!! Sine NOT MUCH PEPPER left!!! And one thing is the true is that NEXT YEAR crop is worst than this year so prices will be very high since the farms/trees are in insects postions and many trees are dead!!! And insects spread out to next farms with high speed so we can say 40% Less quantity in Crop Next Year 2008!!!

Thank you very much and we do hope buyers/processing buyers have right decision to purchse goods on time with correct

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TECH CALLS - INTRA DAY

2007-06-08T06:27:41+02:00

TECHNICALS: BUY NCDEX CHANA JULY ABOVE 2326 SL 2275 T1 2340 T2 2364
FUNDAMENTALS: DESI CHANA REPORTED FIRM AT THE BENCHMARK DELHI MARKET. THERE HAS BEEN SOME ENQUIRIES FROM MILLERS AND TRADERS AT THE HIGHER LEVEL. THE QUOTES AT LAWRENCE ROAD FOR MAHRASHTRA LINE AND MP/RAJASTHAN CHANA WAS PRICED AT Rs.2,425-2,450 AND Rs. 2,215-2,220 PER QUINTAL.

TECHNICALS: BUY NCDEX JEERA JUNE AT CMP SL 12840 T1 13252 T2 13401
FUNDAMENTALS: DEMAND HAS IMPROVED IN THE RECENT TRADE AT THE UNJHA MARKET. ALSO, THERE ARE AROUND 40 PER CENT OF CROP LOSS REPORTED IN TURKY, SYRIA AND IRAN. HENCE, JEERA PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE NORTH DIRECTION. NCDEX QUALITY JEERA QUOTED IN THE RANGE OF Rs. 13,200-13,300 PER QUINTAL. DOLLAR HAS ALSO SHOWED SOME IMPROVEMENT, IT IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT 40.90.

DISCLAIMER: THE AUTHOR OF THIS WEBSITE IS NOT RESPOSIBLE FOR ANY LOSS.

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Trade cautiously in base metals

2007-06-07T14:17:20+02:00

The trend has turned down in base metals and hence selling with sl is advisable. the technical report will be available very soon for the investor till then keep ur finger cross. cheers amit shukla

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Dollar flares up on reports N. Korea test-missiles

2007-06-07T14:10:48+02:00

The dollar has firmed on reports that North Korea has test-fired several "short-range missiles". South Korea's Yonhap news agency has reported that North Korea has fired several missiles off the west coast into the Yellow Sea. If confirmed, it would mark the second missile test by the communist state in three weeks.

"We're seeing some very moderate risk aversion, which has brought the pound down and has given markets an excuse to sell the euro back down to yesterday's lows," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon.

However, he noted that effects on carry trades are small so far, with some high-yielding currencies, like the New Zealand dollar, rema ining firm.

At 11.34 am, the euro was trading at 1.3469, having been at 1.3493 an hour earlier, while the pound was trading at 1.9878, down from 1.9924.

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Burma FAQ urad ended weak in Mumbai

2007-06-07T14:07:07+02:00

Mumbai, June 07 - Burma urad FAQ variety plunged sharply in the absence of buyers at the higher level during the last session of trade at the Mumbai pulses market Thursday. Meanwhile, Burma tur along with imported peas offered steady on some buying support.

Burma urad FAQ slipped by Rs. 50 to Rs. 2,531 as buyers were not very keen to make deal at the higher rates. However, shortage of ready stock kept Burma urad SQ variety stable at Rs. 2,801 per quintal.

Burmese tur - lemon new and old - remained unaltered at Rs. 2,400 and 2,300 per quintal on consistent buying queries. Similar tone was observed in gravity tur and both new and old quoted at Rs. 2,450 and Rs 2,350 respectively.

Imported white peas of Canadian and Ukrainian closed on steady note at Rs. 1,691-1,701 and Rs. 1,611 per quintal. France origin white peas also quoted steady at Rs 1,661 per quintal. Green peas from Canada and America that got into trade stable at Rs. 1,550 and Rs. 1,625 per quintal on sluggish buying support from flour mills.

Australia chana in forward segment quoted unchanged to Rs 2,551 per quintal due to lack of sufficient offers at higher level despite some upward gain on futures as well as on spot market Delhi and Indore.

In other news, desi chana prices improved at benchmark markets of Delhi and Indore. Rajasthan-line quoted Rs. 25 higher to Rs. 2,200-2,215 per quintal and Maharashtra-line at Rs. 2,425-2,450 per quintal in Delhi. At Indore, desi chana was priced at Rs. 2,180-2,185, up Rs. 15 per quintal.

Burma Kabuli ruled stable at Rs 2,201 per quintal on sluggish off-take.

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LME intervention pulls Ni down

2007-06-07T13:34:21+02:00

Mumbai, June 07-On London Metal Exchange[LME], Nickel prices dipped on short selling steered by the introduction of stringent lending regime for its Nickel contracts by the exchange. In addition stock deliveries on LME warehouses and use of substitutes by the stainless steel industry added to the downside pressure. Nickel stocks jumped up by 198 tonnes to a fresh eleven month high of 8,604 tonnes.

Nickel for three month delivery is currently trading choppy at $43,750/tonne, down by 15.5% from an all time high of $51,800/tonne. It fluctuated in the range $43,402-45,650/tonne. Nickel cash/three spread eased at $1,200/1,400. A London based trader says that the next target for Nickel could be $43000 or even $38,000.

The LME has amended its lending guidance on dominant long positions for its nickel contract from Thursday, lowering the threshold from where members or clients that hold long positions are required to lend to the market.

The lending guidance is a measure to prevent trading from becoming disorderly when one or more market participants have a dominant long position in the market.

According to the new norms, if at any time two members or clients hold 25% or more of the warrants on nickel stocks each, both should be ready to lend--at no more than 0.25% of the cash price--to reduce their position below 25%.

Copper for three month delivery retreated by $71/tonne to currently trade at $7,385/tonne. It tossed in the range $7,360-7,476/tonne. The downside in the red metal was limited due to falling inventories and strike concerns at Grupo Mexico.

On benchmark LME warehouses, Copper stocks decreased for the fourteenth time in a row by 775 tonnes to 1,22,275 tonnes, the lowest level since October 24 and down by almost 43% from a three-year high of 216,100 tonnes in February 2006.

Zinc for three month delivery currently traded at $3,632/tonne, down by $38/tonne. It tossed in the range $3,630-3,700/tonnes. Aluminium for three month delivery currently traded at $2,740/tonne, down by $19/tonne. It swayed in the range $2,730-2,774/tonne. [All fig correspond to 17.46 hrs IST]

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